The hottest property market we chased together in

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The real estate market we followed together in 2013

Guide: another year has come to an end. On the occasion of saying goodbye to 2013, looking back on the real estate market this year, just like the old song "a little moved", I am a little moved about you but so afraid to look at your eyes, a little moved, a little hesitant, I can't believe I can't help it, I am a little moved about you

another year has come to an end. On the occasion of saying goodbye to 2013, I look back on the real estate market of this year, just like the old song "a little moved by you", which sings "I'm a little moved by you, but I'm so afraid to look into your eyes, a little moved by you, a little hesitant, I can't believe I can't help it, I'm a little moved by you, and I don't know whether the result is sad or happy", melancholy and hope

let's talk about this year's real estate market forecast first. The prediction of the real estate market in 2013 is more tangled than in previous years. On the one hand, the alternation of government teams and the attitude towards real estate make the prediction results confusing. On the other hand, real estate tax, money and credit will interfere with the final result. In particular, the news of the expansion of the pilot property tax with little thunder and rain, even well-known celebrities such as Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of finance, did not expect it to end like this

eight "prophets" who like to predict the real estate market, such as multi modulus of elasticity and maximum experimental power, have predicted the 2013 market one after another at the end of last year. According to media statistics, developers and agents represented by Ren Zhiqiang and Yu Ying finally have a high hit rate of prediction of the real estate market, while economists represented by Niu Dao, Xie Guozhong, Wu Qilun, Xia Bin, etc. are generally unreliable. Scholars may know more about economics than developers, but developers know more about China than they do. Among them, the most eye-catching is the Weibo prediction of guojianbo, chairman and President of Yinglian international real estate in 2012: "if China's real estate market can get out of another wave of rising market just fooled by Ren Zhiqiang (Note: Chairman of Huayuan Real estate, known as" Ren Yingying ", whose prediction is almost all hit) by next March, I will run naked for 10 kilometers on Chang'an Street in Beijing on the opening day of the two sessions next year. If it's the opposite market, please apologize publicly on the media that you fooled with Mr. Ren Zhiqiang. " As soon as this microblog came out, the media was in an uproar. Since they dared to say such cruel words, there must be a reason. Unexpectedly, in March, the national official data showed that house prices rose by 3.07% year-on-year. "Guo Jianbo streaked" has become a joke that many people are looking forward to the opening of the two sessions and paying attention to at the same time. Then Guo admitted his failure and publicly apologized. As for the streaking practice, he only posted a nude cartoon on his microblog

the prediction of the real estate market can be understood more as a game for some people to win attention, but the real estate market in 2013 does have some sad reminders of "the rain is coming and the wind is blowing all over the building"

this year, "ghost town" has become a "growth point" of real estate. Due to the high vacancy rate, there have been a large number of "ghost towns" in China. Behind these ghost towns, some foam have burst, and how much is impulse, how much is face, how much is interest relationship, and how much is political achievement remains to be further explored. It is worth noting that the biggest focus of the inventory of ghost towns in China is whether real estate investment has come to an end? As the "ultimate product" of the real estate foam, the "ghost town" crisis has begun to spread in the third and fourth tier cities

in October, a "Nobel laureate Schiller: there is a foam in China's real estate market" was reprinted by various media. In Schiller's book irrational prosperity, he made a systematic analysis of the irrational prosperity and the risks it may cause. As early as 2009, because China's real estate strives to constitute the development power to promote the use of new materials market, there is a huge gap between market house prices and national income, Made the conclusion that there is a foam in China's real estate market

in terms of policies, the new "national five articles" issued in early 2013, although known as the strictest regulation mechanism in history, did not immediately trigger nationwide policy follow-up. In the coming years, most organic solvents are toxic. The intensive introduction of regulatory policies in second tier cities has once again made regulatory policies the focus of the property market. At the end of October and the beginning of November, the first tier cities made the first effort, "Beijing seven", "Shanghai seven" and "Shenzhen eight" have been launched one after another. Affected by the pressure of rising house prices, second tier cities have concentrated on taking over the control flag. So far, 17 cities in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Nanchang, Xiamen, Nanjing, Changsha, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Fuzhou, Taiyuan, Harbin, Xi'an, Urumqi and Zhengzhou have all been "overweight" regulation, and the real estate market has entered the post "national five article" era

this year, China is experiencing unprecedented urbanization, with a large number of people gathering from rural to urban areas; The growing middle class, most of whom live in houses in the 1980s, are eager to move into more comfortable apartments and buildings, which have promoted the property market to a certain extent. In the first three quarters of 2013, residential sales soared by 35% over the same period last year; Compared with the same period last September, the price of new houses in 69 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities showed an upward trend. House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing rose by more than 20%; In smaller cities, such as Nanjing and Xiamen, house prices rose by 15%, and China's real estate prices continued to rise

behind the prosperity, some real estate giants in China have begun to speak or act. Vanke Wang Shi believes that there is a foam in real estate; Wanda Wang Jianlin also believes that there is a real estate foam in some cities, but it is still controllable; Li Ka Shing began to sell his mainland real estate holdings

with the rapid increase of real estate supply, China's real estate is changing from the state of "short supply" in the past 10 years to "excessive structural supply". In addition, the high debt of real estate developers is also worrying. Bernstein analysts believe that the real estate industry has reached the highest debt point in 10 years, if the economy does not reach 12% slightly If the boom or sales slow down, developers are likely to cut prices recklessly and lead to a vicious circle

fortunately, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee no longer mentioned real estate regulation, but began to involve deeper issues. The decision to comprehensively deepen reform has allowed many real estate practitioners to see the embryonic form of a long-term mechanism. According to the process of urbanization, industrial development and the housing situation of the people, the government should formulate housing development plans to ensure land supply and maintain a total balance. At the same time, it should standardize the development of the second-hand housing market and rental market, and solve the housing problem of the people through rental, sale and security channels. Colleagues in the industry, if we are market-oriented, deepen product research and development, and put an end to blindly following the trend, no matter how many challenges we face, we can go well in 2014

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