The hottest propylene oxide quickly stopped fallin

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Propylene oxide: the upside space of rapid stop falling and reverse rising is limited

propylene oxide: the upside space of rapid stop falling and reverse rising is limited

September 17, 2018

near the weekend, domestic propylene oxide stopped falling and reverse rising rapidly, and the market unexpectedly "bulged", rising and falling during the week. This round of decline has not yet touched the psychological expectations of the industry, but the market turned with a lightning fast trend, breaking the expected trend of the industry again, but Zhongyu information believes that, Under the background of not deep decline, the support and momentum of this round of rise are also limited, and the overall PO price in Shandong in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed the previous high of 13000 yuan/ton

in terms of the overall supply side, there is a gradual incremental process in mid to late September. From the end of August to the first ten days of September, imported Po shipping schedules frequently arrive at the port, and the overall supply side of the East China market is substantial. Next week, Sinopec Changling and Jinling phase I units are expected to be full, while the uncertainty of the specific resumption of production of auspicious God continues, and the platform's voice is obvious, disrupting the confidence of the industry in the future. If auspicious God is successfully restarted next week, it is bound to impact the market mentality, Shandong's price focus continues to explore risks, but if auspicious God is still difficult to resume production, next week coincides with the Mid Autumn Festival holiday and the National Day holiday in the later stage of the merger, and the terminal and downstream inventory replenishment and stock preparation cycle. On the basis of the strong price support without inventory pressure in many po factories, the market is expected to rise slightly, but given that this round of them is also applicable to injection molding machines, the decline is not large, and the expected rebound space is limited, We still need to focus on the further guidance of Jishen device dynamics on the market next week

from the demand side, the downstream and terminal raw material reserve inventory is low, and there are still risk concerns about the future market after the periodic just need to replenish positions, and there is no long-term inventory accumulation. The overall demand is expected to be good in September, so the price of Po and polyether will not show a significant downward trend before the National Day holiday. It is reported that Bluestar Dongda plans to stop for maintenance days before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the supply of polyether in the north will be reduced after the high-speed amplifier is amplified, In addition, the number of polyether exported by Dow to China decreased in September, and the overall supply of polyether fell in a narrow range in the later period, but other high-end sources may take the opportunity to make up for the low cost. In addition, polyether factories mostly have some reserve inventory to supply core households, so there is not too much shortage of polyether supply next week, worrying about Chinese coatings

the TDI of its related products has recently experienced a collapse decline. Imported goods are generally facing losses, and the prices of domestic goods and Shanghai sources have fallen deeply. The holders are not willing to follow again, and the market has hit the bottom. The other two sections are approaching, and the downstream has short-term stock plans, so the price is expected to rebound slightly; Another related product, MDI, was polymerized. Near the weekend, the factory released more good news and had obvious intention to protect the market, so the goods hit the bottom and rebounded. However, in view of the low enthusiasm of downstream procurement and limited rebound space, the price trend of TDI and black material in the later period still became an important influencing factor for the terminal procurement of polyether, and its price trend still needs to be closely watched

after the small rise of propylene oxide, the polyether cost support may be difficult to weaken immediately, but after the downstream demand this week, the demand for gas in the next week is at risk of weakening. The polyether demand support is insufficient, and it is still difficult to support the polyether price rebound. However, if the early decline is large, there may be room for negotiation or tightening expectations. On the whole, Zhongyu information believes that polyether may continue the upstream and downstream game state next week, narrow range consolidation, and shipment negotiation, Under the expectation that polyether's new orders will continue to follow up next week, there is a lack of support for Po demand from the bottom up. Therefore, there is limited room for domestic propylene oxide to rise based on the price of 12500 yuan/ton, and the market is still stable and narrow before the mid autumn Festival

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